Donald Trump’s first day as President marked a pivotal moment for the USA and the world and raised significant questions about the challenges and opportunities ahead. He signed 26 executive orders and issued many proclamations and memoranda to “secure” American borders, “unleash” American energy, and end diversity schemes, among other things, thus signalling his intent to accomplish much.
He also pardoned the rioters charged for the January 6 assault on the US Capitol, a move that undermined the justice system. The New Times labelled his approach a “muscular vision of presidential power” (A20, NYT January 23).
After signing the executive orders, Trump was asked about relations with Latin America and Brazil and said the relationship “should be great.” But he made it clear who was the dominant partner in that relationship.
“They need us much more than we need them. We don’t need them,” he said. “They need us. Everybody needs us.” Indeed, his address contained no mention of allies, Ukraine, or climate change.
Participation in the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate was severed. Which other international agencies are the next targets? The International Criminal Court of Justice? If everybody needs America, that implies that there is only one winner, and every country is a loser. From this vantage point, foreign and domestic policies will be closely aligned.
President Trump’s false assertion that China runs the Panama Canal to the detriment of US shipping interests and his comment, “…we’re taking it back,” signal an interventionist position.
Beijing dismissed the allegation. The Panama Canal is operated by the Panama Canal Authority, an agency of the Panamanian Government, not Chinese soldiers. China is the second largest user of the canal after the United States, and Chinese companies have indeed invested heavily in ports and terminals near the canal.
Two of the five ports adjacent to the canal, Balboa and Cristóbal, on the Pacific and Atlantic sides, respectively, have been operated by a subsidiary of CK Hutchison Port Holdings since 1997. CK Hutchison Holdings is a publicly traded Hong Kong-based conglomerate founded by Hong Kong businessman Li Ka-shing.
China and Russia have made significant advances in Latin America over the past decade by providing security partnerships with left-leaning countries like Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.
Through its “Belt and Road” initiative, China has financed major infrastructural projects in Latin America and the Caribbean, including deep-water harbours. Further, Russia and China have energy concessions that border the Dragon Gas field, the field for which T&T has a production and exploration licence.
In his address to global business and political leaders at the World Economic Forum on January 23, President Trump said, “… One thing we’re going to be demanding is respect from other nations.” He also warned that they would face tariffs if they do not manufacture in the US.
These first few comments confirm that his speeches on the hustings were not discardable exaggerations in the heat of an election campaign. They are aligned with the platform rhetoric of “America First!”
Adding to the gravity of those comments, Senator Marco Rubio was confirmed as Secretary of State. He is considered one of Congress’s most hawkish members concerning China and Cuba and has been described as “Cuba’s worst nightmare” as a principal antagonist in the Senate.
Successive US presidents have prohibited trade and implemented travel restrictions with Cuba, and the few attempts over many administrations to “thaw” the relationship with Cuba have failed. The US trade embargo on Cuba has lasted more than 60 years.
Senator Rubio was amongst the most vocal critics of the Obama administration’s attempt to re-establish full diplomatic relations with Cuba. Venezuela has been one of Cuba’s closest allies and has continued to supply Cuba with fuel. How will Trump and Rubio approach the Biden administration’s concessions to Venezuela and, by extension, T&T?
The USA is a great power in the game of great power politics, whilst T&T is a small developing country in a world where international institutions have less clout. President Trump’s opening messages indicate that the USA maintains its imperial designs on the region. Therefore, T&T’s first challenge is to be clear about our objectives and how best they could be achieved in an uncertain global environment.
How do we engage with the US superpower while maintaining a measure of our independence to pursue our relationship with the Chinese and the BRICS? There are obvious areas of cooperation with the US. Regional security, curbing the drug trade, and money laundering are key areas of mutual interest.
The migration issue will cause some friction. Since 1960, approximately 300,000 people have emigrated from T&T to the USA, the majority of whom were legal migrants. The US deportation of illegal immigrants will cause some friction and social dislocation.
The key issues are our relationship with Venezuela, access to the Dragon Gas field, and other trading opportunities with Venezuela. The OFAC licences will expire in October of this year. US sanctions against Venezuela may be increased, thus hurting any chance of accessing Venezuelan gas.
These are early days. A less hawkish, more reasonable approach to Venezuela may come. Whether that happens or not, T&T must consider its options more wisely and widely.
Mariano Browne is the Chief Executive Officer of the UWI Arthur Lok Jack Global School of Business.
