DA­REECE PO­LO

Se­nior Re­porter

da­reece.po­lo@guardian.co.tt

Two po­lit­i­cal sci­en­tists sug­gest that cit­i­zens could be head­ing to the polls in Au­gust, as it may be the most strate­gic time for prime min­is­ter-des­ig­nate Stu­art Young to call the gen­er­al elec­tion.

Young, who is cur­rent­ly serv­ing as act­ing prime min­is­ter while Dr Kei­th Row­ley is in Cal­i­for­nia, is set to as­sume full lead­er­ship fol­low­ing Row­ley’s of­fi­cial res­ig­na­tion on March 16.

With gen­er­al elec­tion ahead lat­er this year, po­lit­i­cal sci­en­tist Derek Ram­samooj be­lieves Young will aim for a tim­ing that max­imis­es his chances of win­ning. He said sev­er­al key fac­tors must be con­sid­ered, in­clud­ing the mid-year bud­get re­view, which he pre­dicts will be used to sway vot­ers.

“One would an­tic­i­pate that there would be el­e­ments of that re­view that will try to in­flu­ence vot­ers that the econ­o­my is in a fair­ly good shape. There­fore, there must be el­e­ments that will try to en­hance the life of the vot­ers. For ex­am­ple, the cost of food, ... the cost of liv­ing,” he said.

Ram­samooj al­so not­ed that the ef­fec­tive­ness of the State of Emer­gency (SoE) will play a crit­i­cal role in shap­ing pub­lic opin­ion.

“Per­haps as lit­tle as 60 days, as much as 90 days, would be re­quired for him to demon­strate the vari­a­tion of his lead­er­ship that will en­hance the lives of all cit­i­zens of Trinidad and To­ba­go, es­pe­cial­ly in the mar­gin­al con­stituen­cies. I think the most ap­pro­pri­ate time may be some time in Au­gust.”

Po­lit­i­cal sci­en­tist Dr Maukesh Bas­deo echoed sim­i­lar sen­ti­ments, point­ing to re­cent re­marks by Fi­nance Min­is­ter Colm Im­bert. Dur­ing the com­mis­sion­ing of two port scan­ners on Tues­day, Im­bert stat­ed that while prepa­ra­tions are un­der­way for a mid-year bud­get re­view, no date has been set. He al­so not­ed that the pre­vi­ous ad­min­is­tra­tion con­duct­ed its mid-year re­view as late as June.

Dr Bas­deo said this sug­gests elec­tions are un­like­ly to be called be­fore then. He re­mind­ed the pub­lic that un­der the Con­sti­tu­tion, the Elec­tions and Bound­aries Com­mis­sion (EBC) re­quires 35 days (five weeks) to pre­pare for elec­tions. He al­so high­light­ed that Par­lia­ment will au­to­mat­i­cal­ly dis­solve by Au­gust 27, with elec­tions legal­ly re­quired with­in three months of dis­so­lu­tion.

How­ev­er, he be­lieves a lat­er elec­tion is un­like­ly, as the fi­nan­cial year ends in Sep­tem­ber and tran­si­tions in­to a new cy­cle in Oc­to­ber—re­quir­ing a sit­ting Par­lia­ment to pass the bud­get.

“The eco­nom­ic da­ta will come to play. But if you’re say­ing we’re go­ing with what Min­is­ter Im­bert is say­ing, where he sug­gest­ed that a pre­vi­ous ad­min­is­tra­tion had car­ried down the mid-year re­view as late as June ... then is he sug­gest­ing the elec­tion is be­yond June, pos­si­bly close to the dis­so­lu­tion date, which is in Au­gust?”

Dr Bas­deo added that the fate of the Drag­on gas deal could al­so in­flu­ence the tim­ing of the elec­tion.