Senior Reporter
kay-marie.fletcher@guardian.co.tt
As the world watched with bated breath for the outcome of yesterday’s United States midterm elections, political commentators warned that Trinidad and Tobago’s close relationship with the Trump administration could come under greater scrutiny in Washington if Democrats gained control of Congress.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats were up for grabs, while voters in 36 states also elected governors.
Speaking to Guardian Media ahead of the results yesterday, political commentator and pollster Dr Mwale Henry warned that a shift in congressional control could trigger investigations into US military operations in the Caribbean, potentially raising questions about Trinidad and Tobago’s involvement.
“There’s going to be a lot of investigation coming out from the Foreign Affairs Committee on foreign policy within the Caribbean region, interventions in Venezuela, looking at if there’s been a breach on human rights issues. So all of that is going to come under heavy scrutiny.”
Dr Henry also questioned whether the Government had sufficiently considered the possibility of a change in congressional control when developing its relationship with the Trump administration.
However, he cautioned that a Democratic victory would not necessarily result in major changes to existing security arrangements or US foreign policy.
Instead, he said Congress could review funding and the methods employed by the Trump administration in pursuing its security objectives across the Western Hemisphere.
“So there will be some disruptions. The real question is to what extent,” he added.
Dr Henry also warned that changes in Washington’s approach to Venezuela could introduce further uncertainty into T&T’s ongoing negotiations to access Venezuelan natural gas.
Meanwhile, former Member of Parliament Rodney Charles warned that Trinidad and Tobago could find itself diplomatically exposed if Democrats gained control of Congress, arguing that the Government had aligned its foreign policy too closely with Trump rather than the United States as a whole.
“T&T has tethered its foreign policy absolutely, totally and seemingly irrevocably, not to the US generally as it must, but more so to the leadership of President Trump.”
Charles pointed to the Government’s support for US security operations in the Caribbean and its recent decision to vote alongside Washington against a United Nations resolution calling for an end to the American embargo on Cuba.
He argued that a Democratic-controlled Congress could investigate regional security operations, including the US military operation that captured then-Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in January.
Charles suggested that such investigations could examine communications between T&T and US officials to determine whether this country had any involvement in controversial American military operations in the region.
He added, “My advice to T&T is to recognise that foreign policy is too complex to be developed on the fly. We have to give ourselves room to adjust as circumstances change. It is vitally necessary to engage responsible institutions (like UWI’s Institute of International Relations) in planning foreign policy positions that align with our national interest for various scenarios.”
Charles also suggested adopting a quieter diplomatic approach while strengthening economic relationships with other regional and international partners.
However, political analyst Dr Shane Mohammed cautioned against making premature changes to Trinidad and Tobago’s relationship with Washington.
During an interview with Guardian Media yesterday, he explained that while Congress plays an important role in approving budgets and exercising oversight, Trump would continue to wield considerable authority over foreign policy and bilateral agreements.
“Certain actions, funding as it relates to certain actions that involves international security, military, defence, that sort of thing will need certain approvals. So those things may change depending on who wins, depending on what is the requirement with regard to the approval… I am not one to be alarmist, but I am one to say you have to be aware. And awareness is something that gives you understanding and knowledge. And then it also allows you to start positioning, not switching sides, not jumping ship, but start aligning.”
Meanwhile, both Dr Henry and Charles raised concerns about the pending Senate confirmation of T&T-born Jennifer Johnson-Carroll as the next US Ambassador to this country.
Both suggested that a Democratic takeover of the Senate could affect the confirmation process, potentially delaying her appointment.
