PROF HAMID GHANY

Res­i­dent Po­lit­i­cal Sci­en­tist

hamid.ghany@sta.uwi.edu

One of the most close­ly watched and po­ten­tial­ly game-chang­ing bat­tles in the up­com­ing gen­er­al elec­tion—sure to hold the at­ten­tion of the na­tion­al com­mu­ni­ty—will take place in To­ba­go.

With just two seats—To­ba­go East and To­ba­go West—the PNM must hold on to both as a crit­i­cal part of its strat­e­gy to re­turn to pow­er, as­sum­ing it re­tains its cur­rent seats in Trinidad.

What makes the To­ba­go sit­u­a­tion fas­ci­nat­ing is the dra­mat­ic shift in vot­er pref­er­ence. Af­ter the PNM’s strong show­ing in the Au­gust 2020 gen­er­al elec­tion, just months lat­er in Jan­u­ary 2021, vot­ers de­liv­ered a sur­pris­ing 6-6 tie in the THA elec­tions. But the shock didn’t stop there. In De­cem­ber 2021, the PNM faced a stun­ning 14-1 de­feat in the THA elec­tions, de­spite the ex­pan­sion of the seats from 12 to 15—a clear in­di­ca­tion of the shift­ing po­lit­i­cal winds in To­ba­go.

The re­draw­ing of elec­toral dis­trict bound­aries for the De­cem­ber 2021 THA elec­tions ef­fec­tive­ly shift­ed sev­er­al polling di­vi­sions in­to new ar­eas. How­ev­er, from a method­olog­i­cal stand­point, the mon­i­tor­ing of the vot­ing be­hav­iour in those polling di­vi­sions tells its own sto­ry.

What will com­pli­cate the as­sess­ment of the out­come fur­ther is the im­pact of the for­ma­tion of the To­ba­go Peo­ple’s Par­ty (TPP) out of the Pro­gres­sive De­mo­c­ra­t­ic Pa­tri­ots (PDP) af­ter the De­cem­ber 2021 THA elec­tions.

On De­cem­ber 5, 2022, 13 of the 14 elect­ed mem­bers of the THA who won their seats on a PDP tick­et the year be­fore de­clared that they had be­come in­de­pen­dent mem­bers with ef­fect from De­cem­ber 1, 2022. The on­ly PDP mem­ber left in the THA was the po­lit­i­cal leader Wat­son Duke.

On Au­gust 12, 2023, these in­de­pen­dent mem­bers of the THA formed the TPP. The PDP con­tin­ued to func­tion as a po­lit­i­cal par­ty in To­ba­go. This will be the first elec­tion in which the pop­u­lar­i­ty of the TPP will be test­ed.

So, how will To­ba­go vote? What fall­out has there been for the PDP in re­la­tion to the TPP?

Giv­en the clear shift of sup­port to­wards the PDP in the Jan­u­ary and De­cem­ber 2021 elec­tions, how does the PNM’s sup­port stand now, es­pe­cial­ly con­sid­er­ing the frac­ture with­in the PDP in De­cem­ber 2022 and the sub­se­quent for­ma­tion of the TPP in 2023?

An ex­am­i­na­tion of some polling di­vi­sions (PD) da­ta over the span of three elec­tions–gen­er­al elec­tion Au­gust 2020, the first THA elec­tions in Jan­u­ary 2021 and the sec­ond THA elec­tions in De­cem­ber 2021–tell an in­ter­est­ing sto­ry.

TO­BA­GO EAST

PD 4910–St An­drew’s An­gli­can Pri­ma­ry School, Calder Hall Road, Scar­bor­ough. This PD is in To­ba­go East and was moved from the dis­trict of Scar­bor­ough/Calder Hall in Jan­u­ary 2021 to the new dis­trict of Bagatelle/Ba­co­let in De­cem­ber 2021. The shift in vot­ing be­hav­iour is record­ed as fol­lows:

PD 4910

Gen­er­al elec­tion Au­gust 2020 - PNM – 442; PDP – 171

THA elec­tions Jan­u­ary 2021 - PNM – 287; PDP – 181

THA elec­tions De­cem­ber 2021 – PNM – 290; PDP – 319

It seems that many PNM sup­port­ers stayed home in Jan­u­ary 2021, as there was a sig­nif­i­cant drop in their sup­port com­pared to the gen­er­al elec­tion just five months ear­li­er, with their num­bers de­creas­ing from 442 to 287. How­ev­er, in the sec­ond THA elec­tions of 2021, PNM sup­port re­mained rel­a­tive­ly sta­ble, ris­ing slight­ly from 287 to 290 in the first one.

How­ev­er, the PDP sup­port was rel­a­tive­ly stag­nant be­tween the gen­er­al elec­tion and the first THA elec­tions (171 up to 181). In the sec­ond THA elec­tions there was a dra­mat­ic in­crease in PDP sup­port (181 to 319).

The key ques­tion to be asked is what will hap­pen to the in­creased sup­port for the PDP in the sec­ond THA elec­tions? Will the TPP take most of those votes? Will the PDP hold them? Will the PNM re­gain some of their lost vote from 2020?

PD 5010–Spey­side Gov­ern­ment Pri­ma­ry School, Nos 1-5 School Street, Spey­side. This PD is in To­ba­go East and re­mained in the dis­trict of Par­latu­vi­er/L’Anse Four­mi/Spey­side in Jan­u­ary 2021 at the St John’s An­gli­can Pri­ma­ry School, Nos 1-5 School Street, Spey­side.

PD 5010

Gen­er­al elec­tion Au­gust 2020 - PNM – 306; PDP – 323

THA elec­tions Jan­u­ary 2021. - PNM – 242; PDP – 431

THA elec­tions De­cem­ber 2021 - PNM – 230 ; PDP – 448

This PD was con­sid­ered mar­gin­al in the 2020 gen­er­al elec­tion, with the votes al­most even­ly split be­tween the two par­ties (306 to 323). How­ev­er, just five months lat­er in Jan­u­ary 2021, there was a sig­nif­i­cant drop in PNM sup­port, falling from 306 to 242. There was a fur­ther drop in the sec­ond THA elec­tions in De­cem­ber 2021, with PNM sup­port fur­ther de­clin­ing from 242 to 230.

On the oth­er hand, sup­port for the PDP grew from 323 votes in the 2020 gen­er­al elec­tion to 431 in Jan­u­ary 2021 and in­creased fur­ther to 448 in De­cem­ber 2021.

This PD is in the THA dis­trict cur­rent­ly held by Far­ley Au­gus­tine, and it will be in­ter­est­ing to see whether these num­bers will switch to the TPP or whether the PDP can hold on to these vot­ers. Al­so, the PNM will need to in­crease its sup­port here to be­come com­pet­i­tive in this elec­tion.

TO­BA­GO WEST

PD 4881–Pa­tience Hill Gov­ern­ment Pri­ma­ry School, Win­ches­ter Trace, Pa­tience Hill. This PD is lo­cat­ed in To­ba­go West and was in the dis­trict of Lam­beau/Sig­nal Hill in Jan­u­ary 2021 be­fore be­ing moved to the dis­trict of Sig­nal Hill/Pa­tience Hill for the De­cem­ber 2021 THA elec­tions.

PD 4881

Gen­er­al elec­tion Au­gust 2020 – PNM – 452; PDP – 126

THA elec­tions Jan­u­ary 2021 - PNM – 405; PDP – 173

THA elec­tions De­cem­ber 2021 - PNM – 355; PDP – 313

This PD was a very strong PNM one in the Au­gust 2020 gen­er­al elec­tion, with a mar­gin of 452 to 126. That dom­i­nance con­tin­ued in the Jan­u­ary 2021 THA elec­tions with a slight­ly re­duced mar­gin of 405 to 173. By the time of the De­cem­ber 2021 THA elec­tions, there was a dra­mat­ic shift in PNM sup­port down­wards from 355 to 313, which made this par­tic­u­lar PD a mar­gin­al one.

The PNM will need to re­gain sup­port in this area—but will the TPP in­her­it the for­mer PDP votes, or will the PDP man­age to re­tain its pre­vi­ous sup­port?”

PD 4960–Bethes­da Mul­ti-Pur­pose Fa­cil­i­ty, Arnos Vale Road, Bethes­da. This PD is in To­ba­go West and was in the dis­trict of Ply­mouth/Gold­en Lane for the Jan­u­ary 2021 THA elec­tions be­fore be­ing moved to the Bethes­da/Les Coteaux dis­trict for the De­cem­ber 2021 THA elec­tions.

PD 4960

Gen­er­al elec­tion Au­gust 2020 – PNM – 410; PDP – 199

THA elec­tions Jan­u­ary 2021 - PNM – 304; PDP – 335

THA elec­tions De­cem­ber 2021 - PNM – 267; PDP – 409

This PD was a heav­i­ly dom­i­nant one for the PNM in the 2020 gen­er­al elec­tion (410 to 199). How­ev­er, in the Jan­u­ary 2021 THA elec­tions there was a ma­jor shift in sup­port down­wards for the PNM, from 410 to 304). Mean­while, the PDP ex­pe­ri­enced an up­swing from 199 to 335. This trend con­tin­ued in favour of the PDP in the sec­ond THA elec­tions in De­cem­ber 2021, mov­ing from 335 to 409, while the PNM sup­port con­tin­ued to drop, mov­ing from 304 to 267.

Once again, the ma­jor is­sue that aris­es here is whether the TPP can switch over these for­mer PDP sup­port­ers to their can­di­date or will the PDP hold its sup­port. The PNM will need to get an up­swing in sup­port to be­come com­pet­i­tive.

Over­all, the sit­u­a­tion in To­ba­go hinges on whether the PNM can re­gain ground that it lost in the two THA elec­tions in 2021 or whether the TPP/PDP split works out in favour of the TPP or the PDP. All eyes will be on To­ba­go.