Just over a week into his second term, United States president Donald Trump has already initiated actions that are likely to cause serious repercussions across the Caribbean.
The extent to which he views this region through the lenses of illegal immigration and crime and violence, is seen in the crackdown on undocumented migrants, triggered by the flurry of immigration-related executive orders he signed within hours of taking the oath of office.
President Trump’s willingness to deport not only unauthorised immigrants but those with temporary legal status and even some legal permanent residents who are beneficiaries of programmes such as Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and Temporary Protected Status (TPS), will affect T&T and other Caribbean nations that are ill-prepared to absorb large numbers of returning migrants.
It will also impact the flow of remittances that have been a lifeline for many families, as the number of senders and the amount of money flowing to the region could be drastically reduced.
The main concern in T&T since Trump’s election victory last November has been the future of the Dragon gas deal. The two-year Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) waiver granted by the US Treasury Department in December 2023 for exploitation of the oil field was granted by the Biden administration but could be revoked by the Trump regime.
Newly appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s stance on the issue is well known. He has accused the Biden administration of granting millions of dollars to Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro regime through oil licences.
Dragon gas was expected to give a desperately needed boost to local oil and gas production on which the T&T economy is so heavily dependent, but which is now under threat.
An even bigger issue at stake for the Caribbean is the gun violence that has escalated into an urgent regional crisis.
Easy access to firearms has transformed Latin America and the Caribbean into the most violent region in the world—the world’s average is 5.8 homicides per 100,000 people but the region has more than double the global average with 15 murders per 100,000.
Firearms trafficked into the Caribbean mainly from the US are involved in almost 90 per cent of homicides in the region.
The situation, seen as a threat to democracy and stability across the region, led to the convening of a Caricom meeting in Port-of-Spain in April 2023 to address crime and violence as a public health issue. Regional leaders subsequently issued a declaration which, among other things, called on the US to join the Caribbean in its “war on guns.”
However, the new Trump administration is unlikely to give this critical issue the attention and cooperation it deserves.
There will also be repercussions from this second Trump administration’s decision to withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Accord. Small island developing states (SIDS) of the Caribbean, already experiencing the destruction wrought by climate change, now face an increased likelihood of displacement and migration as a result of environmental disasters.
With so many strong signals of policy directions from Trump and his Cabinet that might not be favourable to us, the region’s leaders must, therefore, urgently join forces to increase resilience to external political and economic shocks and prioritise policies that protect citizens’ welfare.
