SHAL­IZA HAS­SANALI

The fight for the mar­gin­al Barataria/San Juan seat be­tween Peo­ple’s Na­tion­al Move­ment (PNM) can­di­date Ja­son Williams and Unit­ed Na­tion­al Con­gress (UNC) con­tender Sad­dam Ho­sein in Mon­day’s Gen­er­al Elec­tion is a dead heat.

This was the find­ing of a re­cent poll con­duct­ed by HHB and As­so­ciates Ltd led by poll­ster Louis Bertrand.

The poll, com­mis­sioned by Guardian Me­dia, showed a two per cent dif­fer­ence be­tween Williams and Ho­sein both of whom are first-time con­tenders—as they face a neck and neck fin­ish in the Au­gust 10 elec­tion race.

The poll’s mar­gin of er­ror is six per cent.

In­ter­views were con­duct­ed with 200 reg­is­tered vot­ers in the con­stituen­cy on cat­e­gories rang­ing from ma­jor is­sues in­flu­enc­ing the vote, the par­ty best ca­pa­ble of solv­ing prob­lems, gen­er­al progress of coun­try and peo­ple, per­for­mance in the con­stituen­cy (PNM) and (UNC), as­sess­ment of can­di­dates, opin­ions of can­di­dates, rea­sons for the rat­ings, vot­ing in­ten­tions and vot­er switch­ing pat­terns.

The poll is one of six mar­gin­al con­stituen­cies HHB and As­so­ciates fo­cused on lead­ing up to the elec­tion.

sharon

From 1995 to 2007, Dr Fuad Khan had served as UNC MP for the Barataria/San Juan seat but de­cid­ed to step down this year.

In the 2007 Gen­er­al Elec­tion, PNM can­di­date Joseph Ross snatched the seat from the UNC. Three years lat­er, Khan threw his hat back in­to the po­lit­i­cal ring, bring­ing home the con­stituen­cy for the UNC once more. In 2015, Khan again con­test­ed the seat, cap­tur­ing 8,722 votes to PNM’s Hafeez Ali, who net­ted 8,182 bal­lots. The re­sults showed Khan edged out Ali by a nar­row win which made the seat a mar­gin­al.

Barataria/San Juan has a vot­ing pop­u­la­tion of over 25,000 and is con­sid­ered cru­cial for both par­ties

As the elec­tion date draws clos­er, re­spon­dents were asked which par­ty they would vote for. The poll showed that “38 per cent” of vot­ers favoured the PNM while “36 per cent” pledged to sup­port the UNC.

“As at the time of the poll, this con­stituen­cy is too close to call,” the poll stat­ed.

This means the seat is in a dead heat be­tween both can­di­dates.

sharon

At the time of the poll, 15 per cent of the elec­tors were “un­sure” of vot­ing while five per cent re­fused to say which par­ty they would sup­port. The poll gave a “rel­a­tive­ly high” (77 per cent) “like­li­hood of vot­ing among elec­tors.”

Re­gard­ing which can­di­date is well known in the con­stituen­cy, Williams picked up an 80 per cent rat­ing com­pared to Ho­sein’s 82 per cent.

In terms of “favoura­bil­i­ty”, Williams took the lead with 54 per cent to Ho­sein’s 41 per cent.

“More peo­ple are un­sure about Ho­sein (45 per cent) than Williams (37 per cent),” the poll stat­ed.

While both can­di­dates are “more or less even­ly with re­spect to why they are liked,” re­spon­dents gave Ho­sein a 29 per cent rat­ing for be­ing more car­ing and help­ing peo­ple to Williams’ 12 per cent.

“With re­spect to things dis­liked about the can­di­dates, Williams’ main prob­lem seems to be that he is per­ceived as not car­ing about peo­ple (29 per cent). Ho­sein’s main prob­lem is that he is not seen of­ten enough in the con­stituen­cy (25 per cent) and that a change is need­ed in the con­stituen­cy,” the poll stat­ed.

sharon

Based on the per­for­mance in the con­stituen­cy, the PNM cap­tured a 34 per cent “good” rat­ing to Ho­sein’s 31 per cent.

How­ev­er, the poll stat­ed that a sig­nif­i­cant­ly high­er per­cent­age of the con­stituents rat­ed the PNM’s per­for­mance as “bad” (41 per cent) than the UNC (26 per cent).

Re­gard­ing which par­ty was best ca­pa­ble of solv­ing prob­lems, the PNM was seen as most ca­pa­ble in tack­ling cor­rup­tion, health­care, COVID-19 and re­open­ing of the econ­o­my.

The poll not­ed that there was no sig­nif­i­cant dif­fer­ence be­tween both par­ties in per­for­mance in the cat­e­gories of hous­ing, ed­u­ca­tion, prices/in­fla­tion, pub­lic trans­port, un­em­ploy­ment and road main­te­nance/re­pairs.

Com­par­ing their lives now to five years ago, 39 per cent of the re­spon­dents re­port­ed they were per­son­al­ly worse off. Some 35 per cent claimed their per­son­al sit­u­a­tion had not changed with 26 per cent stat­ing they are bet­ter off.

The poll al­so looked at vot­er switch­ing pat­terns by com­par­ing how re­spon­dents vot­ed in the 2015 gen­er­al elec­tion to how they in­tend to vote on Au­gust 10.

sharon

It was dis­cov­ered that 73 per cent of those who vot­ed for the PNM in 2015 in­tend to do so again in 2020. This com­pared with 68 per cent of those who vot­ed for the UNC in 2015 who in­tend to do so again in Mon­day’s polls. It al­so found that four per cent of those who vot­ed for the UNC in 2015 in­tend to switch to the PNM. In com­par­i­son, 11 per cent of elec­tors who vot­ed for the PNM in 2015 in­tend to switch to the UNC.

“Race, as a fac­tor in vot­ing in­ten­tions, con­tin­ues to be im­por­tant in this con­stituen­cy,” the poll found.

Delv­ing deep­er in­to the vot­ing in­ten­tions, the poll stat­ed that 66 per cent of Afro-Tri­nis in­tend to vote for the PNM with on­ly six per cent in­tend­ing to vote for the UNC.

“On the oth­er hand, while 59 of In­do-Tri­nis in­tend to vote for the UNC, nine per cent in­tend to vote for the PNM.”

Re­spon­dents iden­ti­fied un­em­ploy­ment, lack of youth train­ing and de­vel­op­ment and poor dis­tri­b­u­tion of elec­tric­i­ty and wa­ter as their biggest con­cerns in the con­stituen­cy.

sharon

United National Congress candidate for San Juan/Barataria constituency Saddam Hosein greets a resident of 8th Street, Barataria, during his walkabout in the area recently.

ABRAHAM DIAZ

sharon

sharon

sharon