When they each ad­dressed their re­spec­tive meet­ings in Cou­va and Ch­agua­nas on Thurs­day, Unit­ed Na­tion­al Con­gress Po­lit­i­cal Leader Kam­la Per­sad-Bisses­sar and Prime Min­is­ter/En­er­gy Min­is­ter Stu­art Young, while in full of­fer­ing mode, did so un­der no­tably changed cir­cum­stances.

While Young warned of the lat­est chal­lenge con­fronting T&T, his Gov­ern­ment and its elec­toral prospects, Per­sad-Bisses­sar’s labour plat­form steered clear of the (US) $12 oil price drop, now be­low this coun­try’s 2025 Bud­get es­ti­mate. That lat­est “change” fac­tor now tests both lead­ers’ abil­i­ty to weath­er this cur­rent phase of bat­tle, which has al­ready de­liv­ered its share of po­lit­i­cal roller­coast­ers.

Last Sat­ur­day’s mam­moth UNC Ma­coya show­ing was met with a coun­ter­punch from for­mer UNC mem­ber Lar­ry Lal­la on the Peo­ple’s Na­tion­al Move­ment’s plat­form.

PNM’s pi­lot­ing of San­dals’ re­turn came with a dou­ble wham­my, UNC deputy David Lee’s le­gal clear­ance fol­lowed swift­ly by the demise of the Drag­on Gas deal.

Pot­shots fol­lowed on both sides, PNM buck­shot­ting UNC’s “Yel­low Code” as a “lie,” while of­fer­ing Red as the word of “truth.” Still, full man­i­festos from both par­ties re­main pend­ing.

Now, with the oil price drop and a glob­al en­vi­ron­ment that re­fus­es to stay still, both lead­ers face calls for an­swers that go be­yond elec­tion­eer­ing, be­yond the “thiev­ing” ac­cu­sa­tions, the grandiose promis­es, and plans for­mu­lat­ed years ago, many of which re­quire mon­ey and time to re­alise. “Blah, blah, blah” sim­ply won’t cut it. Cit­i­zens are look­ing for more than buzz­words, they want a sta­ble T&T, one ca­pa­ble of re­spond­ing quick­ly, with com­pe­tence and co­op­er­a­tion.

Lee, nick­named “The Drag­on” for his vo­cal con­cern about Gov­ern­ment’s Drag­on Gas project, was cleared, on­ly for the Unit­ed States to re­voke OFAC li­cences, leav­ing UNC po­lit­i­cal­ly din­ing on a Gov­ern­ment “coo-coo cooked” by it all. If Lee’s le­gal mat­ter is be­ing re-scru­ti­nised af­ter the Drag­on got shot down, Young, whose stew­ard­ship of the project now tests his cred­i­bil­i­ty, fought hard at PNM’s Point Fortin meet­ing for a pub­lic man­date.

Post-Ma­coya, the per­cep­tion that UNC has a “chance” has sparked cel­e­bra­to­ry boasts and re­vived hopes of a 2010 re­peat. Talk of an­oth­er snap poll, 24/25 seats, what­ev­er the num­ber, has made “tight” a dirty word for the PNM, far be­yond OFAC.

The PNM’s ground game is on, plug­ging the leaks, be it mes­sag­ing, pro­file, or pre­sen­ta­tion, while ham­mer­ing UNC’s fail­ures, past, present, and pro­ject­ed. Young has said tim­ing is cru­cial, whether their tim­ing is on point re­mains to be seen. Some spec­u­late about the be­hind-the-scenes hand of for­mer prime min­is­ter Dr Kei­th Row­ley, who still serves as PNM Po­lit­i­cal Leader and at­tend­ed Tu­na­puna’s meet­ing.

Ma­coya’s “mas­sive” drew some lo­gis­ti­cal cu­rios­i­ty. Tabaquite can­di­date Sean Sobers ac­knowl­edged on Tues­day that trans­port was pro­vid­ed for some. But it was clear­ly pro­mot­ed and well-planned by strate­gists. Now, there’s grow­ing chat­ter of a wave build­ing in the East-West Cor­ri­dor, a crit­i­cal zone for elec­toral vic­to­ry.

The UNC is lean­ing on num­bers swelled by its 2024 in­ter­nal elec­tions, the sup­port of union lead­ers, and its tap­ping in­to the griev­ances of work­ers af­fect­ed by PNM pol­i­cy. The par­ty is al­so re­cruit­ing in­flu­encers of every stripe to com­plete its cor­ri­dor pitch.

On Thurs­day, Per­sad-Bisses­sar, vis­i­bly dwarfed stand­ing among union heads, sparked cu­rios­i­ty about coali­tion sta­bil­i­ty. She ad­mit­ted their con­ver­sa­tions had been “in­tense,” adding with a grin, “Dem union fel­las ent easy, eh? We at the ta­ble, they’re putting their pro­pos­als, and lis­ten, I ent easy too. I had­da push back.”

The im­age, and spec­tre, of 2010 looms large in the minds of both par­ties. UNC plans to wrap its cam­paign at Aranguez Sa­van­nah, the site of its 2010 ral­ly. The PNM, not to be out­done, re­turns to Ed­die Hart Grounds, its own fi­nal ral­ly site in 2010.

PNM can­di­date se­lec­tions aim to poach from op­po­si­tion strong­holds, while UNC’s slate shows tar­get­ed tai­lor­ing to both cause and con­stituen­cy. UNC and PNM can­di­dates in Mal­abar/Mau­si­ca both go by “Do­minic.” Sobers re­turns in Tabaquite af­ter Ani­ta Haynes-Al­leyne backed his 2020 San Fer­nan­do West run. Jear­lean John wants to “rest” the Pan­day lega­cy in Cou­va North, by chal­leng­ing his daugh­ter. In To­co, Wayne Sturge ap­pears to be gain­ing sup­port from PNM crossovers.

Jack Warn­er, UNC’s cor­ri­dor walk­a­bout leader, heads this week­end to Moru­ga, PNM’s tar­get, but a seat he “worked” suc­cess­ful­ly in 2010. Ma­yaro’s UNC/PNM fight could still feel the im­pact of out­go­ing MP Rush­ton Paray, who, un­like oth­er re­placed UNC MPs, isn’t ral­ly­ing with the par­ty’s can­di­date. Paray’s over­seas.

Mean­while, eyes are al­so on the three-way bat­tle in St Joseph and To­ba­go, where the PNM’s re­build since its 2021 To­ba­go House of As­sem­bly elec­tion wipe­out will be test­ed against the To­ba­go Peo­ple’s Par­ty strong­hold.

With just two weeks to go, it’s po­lit­i­cal life or death for hands-on PM Stu­art Young and Kam­la Per­sad-Bisses­sar. Meet­ings are be­ing host­ed, plans are in mo­tion. Time, as al­ways, will tell.